by Bane

I know that we have committed, since beginning to post again this year, that we will not discuss the new religious movement known as “politics”. However, we wanted to get something on record. Too many times we discuss things and there is no record of it. Thoughts in our heads or discussed over pints are not enough to be held to account or used as evidence for either being woefully out of touch or in sync with the vibrations of western society. It also gives us a chance to test, on the record, sweeping statements that are hypothesized based on historical and economic underpinnings, which we think are highly misunderstood by all of today’s media that purport to be pumping out the “facts”. Plus, it is kind of fun.

We believe, along with many others, there is a dramatic and generational shift going on. America will swing left. Dramatically. However, we are not so sure the conditions are set up for this to occur just yet. We do believe, given everything we have observed over the last decade about the global economy and the echoes of history, America’s stance as the lead power and world reserve currency is heading for the exits. This isn’t ground-breaking.

However, we do not think that time is now. It took France a revolution and an expensive hobby in chasing the British off the planet for its status to melt away. Britain succumbed after two world wars. Forgive us, but 2008 and COVID (as it stands) are not on par with the aforementioned. We believe the time is near, just not today. If Biden wins the election then we are wrong and that time is closer than we imagined. The generational political transformation and MMT policymaking will arrive to finish things off, if conflict doesn’t before hand.

Yet we can’t help but think there is something funny about the messaging of politics today. Our media no longer informs. What people fail to understand is Trump’s fans aren’t solely right wingers. There’s a lot of people of different backgrounds that support the President. The more you talk bad about them, the more they go underground and the less we all know. Many of these people, we think much more so than in 2016, are unlikely to admit they support Trump.

We believe Trump will surprise again. Not just by winning, but by winning clearly. Think about the UK election in 2019, there are similar themes (not too indifferent from Brexit before the 2016 election). Perhaps victory not as decisively as the Conservative win, but it will be something that is difficult for the Democrats to dispute. We think under Trump’s final term that things will begin to fall apart, not entirely due to his actions. His failures will invoke a reaction and a broad shift to the left, which will bring in economic policies that will undoubtedly change America and the world order forever. Many think COVID is this event, we are just not convinced. It will be recited by historians as contributing, but the death blow is yet to arrive. There is one more political shift to be made before real changes occur, we just don’t think it happens tomorrow.